Solving the human resource quality problem for double-digit growth targets
The target of GDP growth of 10% or more in 2027 requires a substantial improvement in labor productivity, with the quality of human resources playing a key role. Speaking on the sidelines of the National Assembly session on October 31st, National Assembly Deputy Hoang Minh Hieu (Nghe An) suggested that training policies should be reformed to use skills, employment, and productivity as benchmarks; and that workers should be proactively retrained to adapt to the impact of artificial intelligence.
The paradox is that there is a shortage of highly skilled labor, leaving young people out of jobs and training
According to delegate Hoang Minh Hieu, the Economic and Financial Committee's verification report noted that double-digit growth, if not based on productivity improvement, will be difficult to genuinely translate into a model of in-depth growth.
According to the Government Report, the target for GDP growth in 2027 is set at 10% or higher, and labor productivity at 8.6%. These are very high and necessary targets. However, according to the delegates, what needs to be clarified is not only how much productivity will increase, but also where that increase will come from: from labor mobility, improving the quality of human resources, science , technology and innovation, or primarily from increased investment capital?
Delegates believe that there are many indications that the human resources issue needs more serious attention and urgent action.Firstly, the skill level of the workforce remains low compared to the requirements of the new growth model. In the third quarter of 2026, the percentage of trained workers with degrees and certificates only reached 30.4%. Meanwhile, according to the audit report, informal labor still accounted for 61.5% in the first nine months. This situation highlights the need to improve the skill foundation of the workforce to adapt more quickly to technology and job shifts.
Furthermore, the gap between training and the needs of the labor market remains large. In the third quarter of 2026 alone, approximately 1.6 million people aged 15-24 were unemployed and not participating in education or training, accounting for 11.2% of the youth population.
Meanwhile, the verification report continues to note the shortage of highly skilled personnel in the semiconductor, artificial intelligence, digital technology, and high-tech sectors. Many businesses report being unable to recruit skilled workers... "This is a paradox: businesses lack skilled labor, while a significant number of young people are left out of both employment and training," Representative Hoang Minh Hieu commented .
Another challenge is that the development of artificial intelligence ( AI ) is making retraining more urgent. Unlike previous industrial revolutions that primarily impacted unskilled labor, AI has the potential to directly impact office workers and jobs involving repetitive cognitive tasks.Citing research published by the International Labour Organization (ILO) in April 2026, the delegate stated that approximately 11.5 million Vietnamese workers, equivalent to one in five, are employed in jobs that could be impacted by AI.
Notably, the level of impact varies significantly across regions. Cities like Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Da Nang account for only 24.3% of the total jobs nationwide but concentrate 38% of the jobs potentially affected by AI.
Globally, the World Economic Forum forecasts that by 2030, approximately 39% of workers' core skills could change, and 59 out of every 100 workers will need training.The pressure to improve the quality of human resources is increasing as Vietnam's fertility rate is projected to fall to only 1.93 children per woman in 2025, while the period of demographic dividend is forecast to end in 2036.
According to the delegates, this means that the room for growth by increasing the number of workers will become increasingly limited. Therefore, more value must be created from each worker through improving the quality of human resources and labor productivity.
Use skills, employment, and productivity as measures of training quality
Emphasizing that human resource development is one of the three strategic breakthroughs identified by the Party, National Assembly Deputy Hoang Minh Hieu argued that the experience of economies that have overcome the middle-income trap shows that industrialization is always linked to the process of upgrading the skills of the workforce.
Based on that practical experience, the delegate proposed adding to the draft Resolution a provision assigning the Government to supplement the estimated labor productivity for 2026. For 2027, a clear scenario regarding the sources of labor productivity growth needs to be developed, quantifying the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP). "This must be the basis for the National Assembly to monitor the quality of growth, not just the growth rate," the delegate emphasized.
Furthermore, human resource development policies need to shift from focusing on the target of "how many people are trained" to emphasizing the assessment of labor quality, such as "what jobs can they do after training, how much do they earn, and how much productivity increases."
To achieve this, delegates proposed the early completion of a mechanism for forecasting human resource needs; the establishment of a mechanism for ordering training between the State, schools, and businesses; and the public disclosure of employment rates and post-graduation income for each training field.
To address the impact of artificial intelligence, there is a need for focused and targeted retraining and lifelong learning programs for workers; prioritizing occupational groups highly affected and workers at risk of difficulty in transitioning to new jobs.
Delegates also suggested making businesses a central entity in skills training activities. Accordingly, it is necessary to study mechanisms to provide stronger incentives for the costs businesses incur for training and retraining their employees; and to link support policies with output results in terms of skills, employment, and productivity.
In particular, given the crucial nature of human resource development, delegates proposed that the Government promptly complete the National Human Resource Development Plan in 2027 as mentioned in the Government's Report... Based on that, if necessary, research should be conducted to submit to the National Assembly amendments to relevant laws or to issue a separate resolution on breakthrough mechanisms and policies for human resource development and labor productivity improvement in the coming year.